After their success in the local elections, the conservative PP must have felt confident that they would win yesterday's general election. A coalition between them and Vox would surely command a majority of seats. The polls suggested the PP would win 168 seats.
Although the PP gained seats (136 from 89 in 2019), Vox (the only other right wing party) lost seats (33 from 52 in 2019). Together they have 169 seats which is 7 seats short of the number required for an absolute majority.
As it stands, the socialist PSOE have a better chance of achieving pacts that will allow them to continue to govern. However, pacts with some of those groups could mean that we end up with the "tail wagging the dog" and are thus unlikely to succeed. Pedro Sanchez would need Junts de Catalunya to offer to abstain to achieve a majority. Junts will only cooperate if Sanchez promises a referendum on independence which he won't.
Unless some miracle occurs, it is probable that Spain will face another election in December - the sixth in eight years. At least that would be in the cool of winter - some voters suffered 40 degree temperatures to reach polling stations yesterday.
No comments:
Post a Comment