The regional elections in Andalucia, called one year early, act as a barometer for the general election in Spain and for other regional elections. It was the instability of the pact between the Socialists and the United Left that lead to an early election – the result is interesting.
What the Socialists wanted was an absolute majority, what the got was a simple majority which means they will need a pact with one of the other parties to have overall control. They needed 55 seats and ended up with 47.
The PP (Conservatives) lost 17 of their seats, not to the Socialists but to other parties, notably the left wing Podemos and the right wing Cuidadanos both of which are fledgling parties.
The difficulty for the Socialists is finding a partner to work with. Their pact with the United Left broke down and in any case they only have five seats. They could look to the newly formed CItizens party but that would be and unholy alliance and in any case, Cuidadanos want to test the waters in forthcoming elections for themselves as do Podemos.
At the General Election (whenever that is called) we may see the same situation that faces Britain where the Labour Party and the Conservatives are neck and neck. There, the Conservatives believe that labour will try and work with the Scottish Nationalist Party to form a pact.
What we get with coalitions or pacts is a situation which seems to work for awhile but eventually breaks down as the “tail tries to wag the dog” and the major party decides to have none of it.
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